今天的重點倒不是1968年的經典西部電影由Clint Eastwood 主演的 The Good, The Bad and The Ugly. 而是演用其名而想出今天的標題 The Winner, The Loser and The Surviver. 內容是有關金融風暴後這些年來各個金融機構的消長.首先談的是這次金融風暴的贏家們. 一是J.P.Mogan Chase, 大通銀行在傑米迪蒙的帶領下少惹次級貸款. 保持本身的元氣, 用極低的價格拿下Bear Stern 不說, 連購款都是財政部先墊, 而且不負該公司所留下爛攤子的責任. 另外低價收購到 Washionton Mutual, 居然條件好到連承受的債務都可以打折. 但是後來發生London Whale 的交易醜聞, 令人懷疑他們的管理是否夠嚴謹. 今年以來JMP 的股價最高為$67.19一股, 從2009年的$15.00低價漲了很多, 但是尚未超過2000年的$67.20的紀錄.二是Wells Fargo, 在John Stump 的領導下用一百九十億美元的價格搶下Wachovia. Wachovia 原本是Citibank 口中的肥肉, 但在金融風暴的時候, Citibank 本身財務困難, 僅出價十億收購Wachovia, 當然敵不過Wells Fargo. Wells Fargo 財務保守, 管理嚴謹, 步步為營, 但作風大膽進取. 難怪Warren Buffet 非常欣賞. 雖然己是歷史新高價, 卻仍持續增購. WFC 今年以來的最高價為$56.70, 早已超過2008年當時的歴史新高價$44.70. WFC 在2009年的最低價為$7.80.三是Black Rock, 在2009年Lary Fink 領導BLK 聰明地收購了Barclay Bank 的 i-share 生意, 立刻將其資產管理的金額加倍. 這幾年來, 股價從2009年的低價$88.90 至今天的$369.10. i-share的生意是以全球各市場指數的ETF為主.
四是最大的贏家, 非Bershire Hathaway 莫屬. Warren Buffett 帶領BRK 從金融危機以來, 放高利貸給質優但缺錢的金融及工業公司. 聰明地收購許多積優企業. 幾年前BRK 其市場價值尚排不上前十名. 但去年已經進入前五名. 說不定Warrent Buffett 在退休前, BRK 會升至第一.
輸家們倒簡單, 像是倒店的Lehman Brothers, IndyMac, CIT 等等. 加上被收購的Bear Stern,Washington Mutual,Wachovia& Merrill Lynch. 都算是大輸家.
至於存活者則有Citibank, AIG, Bank of America, Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac. 這些金融機構要不是聯邦政府大力融資相救, 否則也早就掛了.
Citibank在2000年時股價最高為$591.3一股. 而今僅為$54.55一股. 2009年時最低為$9.7. 在當時為了求生存Citibank 忍痛用低價賣了些很有價值的資產.更別提有能力收購別人. 如今獲利能力大不如前, 2006年一股賺$41.90, 而去年僅有$2.48. 要想恢復從前的榮景, 不但要非常努力, 而且需要相當長的時間.
AIG 的情況和Citibank 類似, 可以從新起步成長, 但想回到從前的風光, 卻是遙遙無期.
Bank of America 原本沒有涉及太多的次貸業務. 但笨笨地收購了Country Wide, 結果掉入泥沼, 損失慘重. 所幸的是收購了Merril Lynch, 是今天最多收益最多的部門. 如今次貸所留下的法律及罰款問題也解決了差不多. 要是本份認真經營, 倒是很有機會恢復昔日榮景.
Fannie& Freddie 目前位於聯邦掌控之下, 既非公營, 亦非私營. 雖有盈餘但全數充公. 他們的前途可是未明. 當今政府的策略僅有"拖"一字.
2015年5月13日 星期三
房價加溫
美國今年第一季一家庭成屋中間價格增至$205,200. 比去年同期成長了7.4%. 在第一季市場上的待售庫存量為4.6個月的銷量. 低於去年的4.9個月. 一般經濟學家認為待售庫存量為6到7個月的銷量是為健康的買賣平衡.
一家庭新屋的建築, 從2011年的 431,000棟增為去年2014的648,000棟, 但仍僅有正常的一百二十多萬棟一年的一半. 在高峯的2015年是一百七十萬樓.
房價增加主要的是因為需求略增而供應未增. 需求增加約原因是經濟穩定成長, 就業情況改善, 儲蓄率正常, 家庭數量成長. 供應未增的原因是有些地區房價尚未高到使溺水屋消失, 屋主耐心等待更好的時機. 另外, 建築商原先多蓋高價新屋, 現在要是中低價位需求大, 價格好, 應該會看到中低價位的新屋建築量增加.
房屋泡沫的主要原因是美國政府的房屋策略的失敗. 目前經過各項檢修, 應是正常健康多多. 但願房價及銷量合理成長. 讓大眾百姓可以買得起自己的住房, 安居樂業.
一家庭新屋的建築, 從2011年的 431,000棟增為去年2014的648,000棟, 但仍僅有正常的一百二十多萬棟一年的一半. 在高峯的2015年是一百七十萬樓.
房價增加主要的是因為需求略增而供應未增. 需求增加約原因是經濟穩定成長, 就業情況改善, 儲蓄率正常, 家庭數量成長. 供應未增的原因是有些地區房價尚未高到使溺水屋消失, 屋主耐心等待更好的時機. 另外, 建築商原先多蓋高價新屋, 現在要是中低價位需求大, 價格好, 應該會看到中低價位的新屋建築量增加.
房屋泡沫的主要原因是美國政府的房屋策略的失敗. 目前經過各項檢修, 應是正常健康多多. 但願房價及銷量合理成長. 讓大眾百姓可以買得起自己的住房, 安居樂業.
2015年5月8日 星期五
超級電腦
四月份開始, Intel 和 Cray 合作開發最新最快的超級電腦 Aurora. 這個超級電腦將座落在 Argonne National Laboratory in Illinois, 預算是兩億美金, 預定在2018年上線操作.
超級電腦的商業市場原本不大, 從多年前的幾台一年, 到前一陣子的幾百台一年, 而現今是幾千台一年. 市場規模可達一百五十億到兩百億一年. 早先超級電腦一台要賣一千萬美金以上一台. 而現在訂價是五十萬起. 當然, 超超級的仍是數以億計.
許多公司行號並不公開他們有什麼超級電腦, 為的是用作競爭的秘密武器. 有趣的是十五年前位於Lawrence Livermore National Labortary 的超級電腦 ASCI White, 在當時價值數以百萬計, 其運算速度為4,900Gigaflops. 還不如目前最好的個人電腦 Apple MacPro( 內有Intel 十二核心Xeon E5 晶片), 其速度為7,000Gigaflops(1 gigaflops= 1 billion caculations per second), 其市場價格僅不到美金一萬.
目前速度最快的超級電腦是中國的天河二號, 其速度為33,860,000 Gigaflops. 當Aurora 完成時, 其速度將為180,000,000 Gigaflops.
超級電腦的商業市場原本不大, 從多年前的幾台一年, 到前一陣子的幾百台一年, 而現今是幾千台一年. 市場規模可達一百五十億到兩百億一年. 早先超級電腦一台要賣一千萬美金以上一台. 而現在訂價是五十萬起. 當然, 超超級的仍是數以億計.
許多公司行號並不公開他們有什麼超級電腦, 為的是用作競爭的秘密武器. 有趣的是十五年前位於Lawrence Livermore National Labortary 的超級電腦 ASCI White, 在當時價值數以百萬計, 其運算速度為4,900Gigaflops. 還不如目前最好的個人電腦 Apple MacPro( 內有Intel 十二核心Xeon E5 晶片), 其速度為7,000Gigaflops(1 gigaflops= 1 billion caculations per second), 其市場價格僅不到美金一萬.
目前速度最快的超級電腦是中國的天河二號, 其速度為33,860,000 Gigaflops. 當Aurora 完成時, 其速度將為180,000,000 Gigaflops.
2015年4月29日 星期三
NASDAQ 創新高
上星期四, 四月二十三日, 2015. NASDAQ 指數創下一個新記錄 5056.06. 那是經過漫長的十五年達成的. 上一回的記錄 5048.62 是在三月十日, 2000. 創下的. 在當時可正是高科技發燒的時候. 在那之候兩年半, 該指數在十月九日2002, 落到1114.11. 另外2008年時發生的房市泡沫化和財經危機, 該指數又落回到另一個低點,12268.64.
今天, 仍然有些概念股, 有過份的市場價格. 但整體來說, 目前不像2000年時那樣危險. 當時NASDAQ 的P/E為175, 而現在為30.
有幾個例子可以看到當時市場的瘋狂. 其時的P/E比, Intel為50, Cisco為 187, Yahoo為1781, Ciena為4072, Verisign為7998. 加上有些公司別說還沒賺錢, 連生意都還沒有開始做. 股價照樣大漲. 而目前的P/E比, Intel為13.5, Microsoft為17, Apple為17, Google為27, Facebook為74.
世界的進步都是因為科技的進步. 今年是摩爾定律(Moore's Law)五十年紀念, 在可以預見的未來, 科技仍會以飛快的速度進步. 會有更多創新的企業出現. 説不定幾年以後, NASDAQ指數到達一萬㸃時, P/E比仍可維持在合理的範圍.
今天, 仍然有些概念股, 有過份的市場價格. 但整體來說, 目前不像2000年時那樣危險. 當時NASDAQ 的P/E為175, 而現在為30.
有幾個例子可以看到當時市場的瘋狂. 其時的P/E比, Intel為50, Cisco為 187, Yahoo為1781, Ciena為4072, Verisign為7998. 加上有些公司別說還沒賺錢, 連生意都還沒有開始做. 股價照樣大漲. 而目前的P/E比, Intel為13.5, Microsoft為17, Apple為17, Google為27, Facebook為74.
世界的進步都是因為科技的進步. 今年是摩爾定律(Moore's Law)五十年紀念, 在可以預見的未來, 科技仍會以飛快的速度進步. 會有更多創新的企業出現. 説不定幾年以後, NASDAQ指數到達一萬㸃時, P/E比仍可維持在合理的範圍.
2015年4月17日 星期五
2012年9月3日 星期一
U.S.Treasure Department changes payment terms for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
Two weeks ago, Treasure Dept. revises payment terms for Fannie and Freddie. Instead take in 10% of total Draw from Treasure Dept. as dividends for those senior preferred stock, Treasure Dept. will take all future earnings from those two companies as the dividends to exchange when they can not meet the dividend payments they don't need to draw more funding from Treasure Dept..
It looks like Treasure Dept. willing to accelerate to get bail-out money back. During second quarter, both companies combine made 8 billion dollars. Total draw is 188.4 billion and accumulated dividend payment is 45.7 billion, the balance of 142.7 billion need another four and half years to finish the job (if they can make 8 billion every quarter). After they pay 188.4 billion dollars dividend, they still owe Treasure Dept. 188.4 billion dollars capital.
Freddie Mac has twenty issues of preferred stock(not the senior preferred stock Treasure dept. owned)outstanding, total face value is 13.1 billion dollars. If Fed. close the shop after collect 72.3 billion dollars(which Freddie Mac owe and already paid 20.1 billion dollars dividend) as dividend, that will leave nothing for preferred and common stock owners, if Fed. sell Freddie at or under 72.3billion, still leave nothing for preferred and common stock owners( Fed. will take away the money as senior preferred stock capital). If Fed. sell Freddie between 72.3 and 85.4 billion, then preferred stock owners can get part or all face value back, but still leave nothing for common stock owners. Anything over 85.4 billion, then common stock owners have chance to share it remain.
The future of Fannie and Freddie is extremely uncertain. We don't know Fed. going to change payment terms again or not. We don't know when or how Fed. going to wind down them either.
兩週前,美國財政部改變房利美和房地美之特別優先股的股利其付款方式. 從前是年率10%,現在是將每季盈餘全部上繳給財政部作其特別股利,來交換當他們賺得不夠付特別股利時,不用再向財政部支款.
看來財政部想將對兩房的支援款全數儘快收回.第二季兩房共賺80億美元,共欠財政部1884億元,已共付457億元特別股利,剩下的1427億還得四年半才能完工(如果每季都能賺80億).在他們付了1884億特別股利後,仍欠1884億本金.
房地美在外有二十種一般優先股(不是財政部那種特別優先股),全部面額為131億.房地美欠財政部723億,已付201億特別股利.如果財政部在收完723億股利後將其關店,那一般優先股及普通股的股東什麼都沒有,如果將其賣掉在723億或以下,他們還是什麼都沒有(因為會被財政部當所欠本金全部收回),如果賣掉在723億和854億之間,一般優先股的股東可收回部分或全部面額,但是普通股的股東仍一無所有,只有在超過845億以上,普通股的股東才有機會分到超出的部分.
兩房的前途極不確定.我們無法知道聯邦政府會不會再改變支付特別股利的方式,也無法知道什麼時候或什麼方式被處理掉.
It looks like Treasure Dept. willing to accelerate to get bail-out money back. During second quarter, both companies combine made 8 billion dollars. Total draw is 188.4 billion and accumulated dividend payment is 45.7 billion, the balance of 142.7 billion need another four and half years to finish the job (if they can make 8 billion every quarter). After they pay 188.4 billion dollars dividend, they still owe Treasure Dept. 188.4 billion dollars capital.
Freddie Mac has twenty issues of preferred stock(not the senior preferred stock Treasure dept. owned)outstanding, total face value is 13.1 billion dollars. If Fed. close the shop after collect 72.3 billion dollars(which Freddie Mac owe and already paid 20.1 billion dollars dividend) as dividend, that will leave nothing for preferred and common stock owners, if Fed. sell Freddie at or under 72.3billion, still leave nothing for preferred and common stock owners( Fed. will take away the money as senior preferred stock capital). If Fed. sell Freddie between 72.3 and 85.4 billion, then preferred stock owners can get part or all face value back, but still leave nothing for common stock owners. Anything over 85.4 billion, then common stock owners have chance to share it remain.
The future of Fannie and Freddie is extremely uncertain. We don't know Fed. going to change payment terms again or not. We don't know when or how Fed. going to wind down them either.
兩週前,美國財政部改變房利美和房地美之特別優先股的股利其付款方式. 從前是年率10%,現在是將每季盈餘全部上繳給財政部作其特別股利,來交換當他們賺得不夠付特別股利時,不用再向財政部支款.
看來財政部想將對兩房的支援款全數儘快收回.第二季兩房共賺80億美元,共欠財政部1884億元,已共付457億元特別股利,剩下的1427億還得四年半才能完工(如果每季都能賺80億).在他們付了1884億特別股利後,仍欠1884億本金.
房地美在外有二十種一般優先股(不是財政部那種特別優先股),全部面額為131億.房地美欠財政部723億,已付201億特別股利.如果財政部在收完723億股利後將其關店,那一般優先股及普通股的股東什麼都沒有,如果將其賣掉在723億或以下,他們還是什麼都沒有(因為會被財政部當所欠本金全部收回),如果賣掉在723億和854億之間,一般優先股的股東可收回部分或全部面額,但是普通股的股東仍一無所有,只有在超過845億以上,普通股的股東才有機會分到超出的部分.
兩房的前途極不確定.我們無法知道聯邦政府會不會再改變支付特別股利的方式,也無法知道什麼時候或什麼方式被處理掉.
2012年6月1日 星期五
What is the best way for Uncle Sam to exit G S E (government sponsor enterprises) 美國政府脫身於房利美(Fannie Mae)和房地美(Freddie Mac)之最佳方法
Before this year's annual meeting of Berkshire Hathaway, Mr. Buffett let shareholders submit two questions each person by e-mail to three financial journalists.Each journalist chose a dozen or so questions for Charlie and Warren to answer. I did submit my questions, but had not be chosen.
My two questions are 1)What is the best way for Uncle Sam to exit G S E (Government Sponsor Enterprises-specially Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac)? 2)How to resume profitability for them?
From my personal opinion, actually, the second question is the answer for the first one.When Fannie and Freddie begin to make profit , they can start to pay some rescue funding back to U.S.Government which carry 10% dividend due to The Treasure Department. It may take many years to pay back the rescue funding in full. But when it is done, Fannie and Freddie should enhance their capital first, after that, They can start to sell corporate bond without government's back-up, gradually increase the amount until they get all the funding they need and gradually decrease the one that guarantied by government til it is zero.At the mean time, Uncle Sam can sell his shares(79.9%) on the market. This may not only be the best way for Uncle Sam to exit G S E, but could be very profitable too. Or nobody bother to change anything anymore, they can simply continue their business as usual(the rate of the bond that government guarantied is lower than the one without).
How about the second question? It's very hard, but possible.It already happen on Fannie's first quarter result.
Usually,both Fannie and Freddie can make net interest income. The losses after housing bubble burst mainly from 1)much higher foreclosure expenses, 2)much higher credit loss provision, 3)huge comprehensive loss, 4)senior preferred stock dividend. For these four items, if we can eliminate or reduce them, the net earnings will be sustainable.
Let's analyse each one of them individually to see we get any chance or not.
1)On March 31,2012, the serious delinquency of Fannie is 3.67%(it's 5.47% on March 31,2010) and Freddie's is 3.51% , which are much lower than U.S.mortgage market's 7.73% on December 31,2011. That is why their foreclosure expenses are reducing. It won't be zero,but could be much less.
2)Because the lower foreclosure rate. It's not only reduce the expense but reduce the requirement of credit loss provision. That's why we start to see they put less money in it. If the rate keep going down to less than 2%, they may not need to put any extra money in, even may take some money out as profit. Right now, Fannie has 74.6 billion and Freddie has 38.3 billion credit loss provision.
3)When housing market tumble , for those mortgages without or with little down-payment, need to be booked the discrepancy between purchase price and market value as comprehensive loss(unrealized loss).That is the major reason for them to have U.S.Government bail-out. When housing market recover, it can be booked as comprehensive income until wholly recovered. Lately we see comprehensive income instead loss.
4)At present time, Fannie has 117.1 billion bail-out funding from Treasure and Freddie has 72.3 billion. They need to pay 10% dividend annually on these senior preferred stock. When all incomes combined can off set this dividend, then we can say they stop bleeding, they are not required withdraw any more funding from Treasure. As soon as they have healthy balance sheet and cash flow, they should start pay back money to Treasure. This way, they can reduce those very expensive dividend to save money and could use it to pay back more until it all gone.
Even they have chance to stand up themselves again. It may need many many years. Recently, we see good signs and bad news.
Report from National Association of Realtor, April existing home sales was 4.62million units annual rate. It's up 3.4% from March's 4.47million and up 10% from a year ago. The median price was $177.400, up 10.1% from a year ago.
Report from Commerce Department, April new home sales was up 3.3% from March to annual rate of 343,000 units and up 9.94% from a year ago. The median price was $235,700, a slight increase from March.
According to the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index, home price in March fell just 0.03% from February,and after adjusting for seasonal factors , they rose 0.09%. That flat index in March is seen as good news; prices are down roughly 35% from their peak in 2006. In the first three months of this year, average sale price fell 2% from the fourth quarter of last year and 1.9% from a year ago.
The bad news is not from domestic, it is from Europe. Euro zone crisis look like endless drama. Nobody can really figure out what's the total damage for Greece to exit Euro zone, but something for sure is that will slow down economy recovery worldwide. Even may be some area go back to recession.
在今年波克夏股東大會舉行之前, 華老讓股東們每人可經由電子郵件給三位財金記者提出兩個有關問題. 每位記者選出十來個問題讓查老(Charlie Munger)和華老(Warren Buffett)來回答.
我也提出兩個問題,但是沒有被選上.第一個問題是"什麼是最好的方法讓美國政府離開政府支援事業(Government Sponsor Enterprises 特別是指房利美和房地美)". 第二個問題是"如何讓他們恢復獲利能力".
實際上,我個人認為,第二個問題就是第一個問題的解答. 當房利美和房地美開始恢復盈利時, 他們可以逐漸償還政府借給他們的救援金. 該救援金的利息為年率百分之十. 可能須要許多年才能還清. 一但還清,首先應該強化他們的資本結構. 之後, 開始發行無政府保證的債劵, 逐漸增加直到可以取得足夠的融資, 並逐漸減少發行有政府保證的債劵直到完全沒有. 此時, 美國政府可以逐步分批將手中的購股權(佔全部發行股份的79.9%)賣還給房利美和房地美, 或是在市場上出售. 這不僅可能是最好的方法讓山姆大叔離開政府支援企業, 說不定還可以大賺一票. 要是那時候沒有人在乎政府支援企業是否存在, 那他們繼續照舊營業便是(有政府保證的債劵利率要比沒有政府保證的來得低).
那麼第二個問題呢? 是很困難, 但有可能. 房利美在今年第一季已達到.
通常兩房(房利美和房地美)都會有淨利息收入. 房市泡沫化後,他們的損失主要源於 1)過多的法拍損失, 2)須要過高的壞帳準備, 3)資產市場價格的帳面損失, 4)特別優先股的股利.
讓我們逐項分析. 看看是否有機會讓他們持續地轉虧為盈.
1)今年三月底時,房利美的嚴重違約率為3.67%(二零一零年三月底時為5.47%),房地美的則是3.51%,比起二零一一年底美國房貸市場的7.73%少了不少. 因此我們開始看到法拍的損失減少. 法拍損失不會完全消失, 但是可以減少很多.
2)當法拍率降低後, 不只是法拍損失減少,所須壞帳準備亦可減少. 因此兩房的壞帳準備提列亦較為減少. 當法拍率降至2%以下, 不只是可以暫停提列壞帳準備,甚至於可以取出一些作為當季的利潤. 目前房利美有七百四十六億的壞帳準備, 房地美有三百八十三億.
3)房市崩盤後, 那些自備款很少或是沒有自備款的房貸, 須將購買價和跌落後的市場價之差異, 列為當季的虧損.總虧損大於淨資產時, 要麼倒店, 要麼有大佬出錢支持. 兩房倒不起, 所以山姆大叔無限支持. 當房市止跌回升時, 可將增值的部分列為未實現利潤, 直到市場價回到購買價時. 近來, 開始看見未實現利潤取代了未實現虧損.
4)目前房利美有一千一百七十一億, 房地美有七百二十三億是向財政部週轉來的.對於這些特別優先股,兩房是要年付百分之十的股利. 只有在當其它收入總合起來夠付這特別股利後,我們才能說兩房止血了,並且不須再向財政部提領更多錢. 只要他們的財務和現金流量夠健康. 當應儘快地還錢給財政部. 這樣省下的股利, 可以還更多的錢. 直到付清為止.
雖然他們有機會再站起來, 但是須要許多許多年. 近來, 我們看到好的徵兆, 但也有壞消息.
全國房地產協會報告; 四月成屋銷售年率為四百六十二萬棟, 比三月的四百四十七萬棟增加3.4%,比一年前高出10%. 中間售價為$177,400 高出一年前10.1%.
商業部報告;四月新屋銷售年率為343,000棟, 比三月增加3.3%,比一年前高出9.94%. 中間售價為$235,700 比三月略高.
史丹普爾的凱斯希勒房價指數, 在三月中比二月降了0.03%, 經過季節調整後, 則升了0.09%. 這可視為好消息. 三月房價比2006年高峰時降了約35%. 今年第一季平均售價比上一季降了2%,比去年同期降了1.9%.
壞消息並非來自美國國內. 而是來自歐洲. 歐元區危機好像是無止境的戲碼. 無人能預估希臘脫離歐元會帶來的損害. 可預測的是一定會減緩經濟復甦的步調. 甚至有一些區域會再進入衰退.
My two questions are 1)What is the best way for Uncle Sam to exit G S E (Government Sponsor Enterprises-specially Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac)? 2)How to resume profitability for them?
From my personal opinion, actually, the second question is the answer for the first one.When Fannie and Freddie begin to make profit , they can start to pay some rescue funding back to U.S.Government which carry 10% dividend due to The Treasure Department. It may take many years to pay back the rescue funding in full. But when it is done, Fannie and Freddie should enhance their capital first, after that, They can start to sell corporate bond without government's back-up, gradually increase the amount until they get all the funding they need and gradually decrease the one that guarantied by government til it is zero.At the mean time, Uncle Sam can sell his shares(79.9%) on the market. This may not only be the best way for Uncle Sam to exit G S E, but could be very profitable too. Or nobody bother to change anything anymore, they can simply continue their business as usual(the rate of the bond that government guarantied is lower than the one without).
How about the second question? It's very hard, but possible.It already happen on Fannie's first quarter result.
Usually,both Fannie and Freddie can make net interest income. The losses after housing bubble burst mainly from 1)much higher foreclosure expenses, 2)much higher credit loss provision, 3)huge comprehensive loss, 4)senior preferred stock dividend. For these four items, if we can eliminate or reduce them, the net earnings will be sustainable.
Let's analyse each one of them individually to see we get any chance or not.
1)On March 31,2012, the serious delinquency of Fannie is 3.67%(it's 5.47% on March 31,2010) and Freddie's is 3.51% , which are much lower than U.S.mortgage market's 7.73% on December 31,2011. That is why their foreclosure expenses are reducing. It won't be zero,but could be much less.
2)Because the lower foreclosure rate. It's not only reduce the expense but reduce the requirement of credit loss provision. That's why we start to see they put less money in it. If the rate keep going down to less than 2%, they may not need to put any extra money in, even may take some money out as profit. Right now, Fannie has 74.6 billion and Freddie has 38.3 billion credit loss provision.
3)When housing market tumble , for those mortgages without or with little down-payment, need to be booked the discrepancy between purchase price and market value as comprehensive loss(unrealized loss).That is the major reason for them to have U.S.Government bail-out. When housing market recover, it can be booked as comprehensive income until wholly recovered. Lately we see comprehensive income instead loss.
4)At present time, Fannie has 117.1 billion bail-out funding from Treasure and Freddie has 72.3 billion. They need to pay 10% dividend annually on these senior preferred stock. When all incomes combined can off set this dividend, then we can say they stop bleeding, they are not required withdraw any more funding from Treasure. As soon as they have healthy balance sheet and cash flow, they should start pay back money to Treasure. This way, they can reduce those very expensive dividend to save money and could use it to pay back more until it all gone.
Even they have chance to stand up themselves again. It may need many many years. Recently, we see good signs and bad news.
Report from National Association of Realtor, April existing home sales was 4.62million units annual rate. It's up 3.4% from March's 4.47million and up 10% from a year ago. The median price was $177.400, up 10.1% from a year ago.
Report from Commerce Department, April new home sales was up 3.3% from March to annual rate of 343,000 units and up 9.94% from a year ago. The median price was $235,700, a slight increase from March.
According to the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index, home price in March fell just 0.03% from February,and after adjusting for seasonal factors , they rose 0.09%. That flat index in March is seen as good news; prices are down roughly 35% from their peak in 2006. In the first three months of this year, average sale price fell 2% from the fourth quarter of last year and 1.9% from a year ago.
The bad news is not from domestic, it is from Europe. Euro zone crisis look like endless drama. Nobody can really figure out what's the total damage for Greece to exit Euro zone, but something for sure is that will slow down economy recovery worldwide. Even may be some area go back to recession.
在今年波克夏股東大會舉行之前, 華老讓股東們每人可經由電子郵件給三位財金記者提出兩個有關問題. 每位記者選出十來個問題讓查老(Charlie Munger)和華老(Warren Buffett)來回答.
我也提出兩個問題,但是沒有被選上.第一個問題是"什麼是最好的方法讓美國政府離開政府支援事業(Government Sponsor Enterprises 特別是指房利美和房地美)". 第二個問題是"如何讓他們恢復獲利能力".
實際上,我個人認為,第二個問題就是第一個問題的解答. 當房利美和房地美開始恢復盈利時, 他們可以逐漸償還政府借給他們的救援金. 該救援金的利息為年率百分之十. 可能須要許多年才能還清. 一但還清,首先應該強化他們的資本結構. 之後, 開始發行無政府保證的債劵, 逐漸增加直到可以取得足夠的融資, 並逐漸減少發行有政府保證的債劵直到完全沒有. 此時, 美國政府可以逐步分批將手中的購股權(佔全部發行股份的79.9%)賣還給房利美和房地美, 或是在市場上出售. 這不僅可能是最好的方法讓山姆大叔離開政府支援企業, 說不定還可以大賺一票. 要是那時候沒有人在乎政府支援企業是否存在, 那他們繼續照舊營業便是(有政府保證的債劵利率要比沒有政府保證的來得低).
那麼第二個問題呢? 是很困難, 但有可能. 房利美在今年第一季已達到.
通常兩房(房利美和房地美)都會有淨利息收入. 房市泡沫化後,他們的損失主要源於 1)過多的法拍損失, 2)須要過高的壞帳準備, 3)資產市場價格的帳面損失, 4)特別優先股的股利.
讓我們逐項分析. 看看是否有機會讓他們持續地轉虧為盈.
1)今年三月底時,房利美的嚴重違約率為3.67%(二零一零年三月底時為5.47%),房地美的則是3.51%,比起二零一一年底美國房貸市場的7.73%少了不少. 因此我們開始看到法拍的損失減少. 法拍損失不會完全消失, 但是可以減少很多.
2)當法拍率降低後, 不只是法拍損失減少,所須壞帳準備亦可減少. 因此兩房的壞帳準備提列亦較為減少. 當法拍率降至2%以下, 不只是可以暫停提列壞帳準備,甚至於可以取出一些作為當季的利潤. 目前房利美有七百四十六億的壞帳準備, 房地美有三百八十三億.
3)房市崩盤後, 那些自備款很少或是沒有自備款的房貸, 須將購買價和跌落後的市場價之差異, 列為當季的虧損.總虧損大於淨資產時, 要麼倒店, 要麼有大佬出錢支持. 兩房倒不起, 所以山姆大叔無限支持. 當房市止跌回升時, 可將增值的部分列為未實現利潤, 直到市場價回到購買價時. 近來, 開始看見未實現利潤取代了未實現虧損.
4)目前房利美有一千一百七十一億, 房地美有七百二十三億是向財政部週轉來的.對於這些特別優先股,兩房是要年付百分之十的股利. 只有在當其它收入總合起來夠付這特別股利後,我們才能說兩房止血了,並且不須再向財政部提領更多錢. 只要他們的財務和現金流量夠健康. 當應儘快地還錢給財政部. 這樣省下的股利, 可以還更多的錢. 直到付清為止.
雖然他們有機會再站起來, 但是須要許多許多年. 近來, 我們看到好的徵兆, 但也有壞消息.
全國房地產協會報告; 四月成屋銷售年率為四百六十二萬棟, 比三月的四百四十七萬棟增加3.4%,比一年前高出10%. 中間售價為$177,400 高出一年前10.1%.
商業部報告;四月新屋銷售年率為343,000棟, 比三月增加3.3%,比一年前高出9.94%. 中間售價為$235,700 比三月略高.
史丹普爾的凱斯希勒房價指數, 在三月中比二月降了0.03%, 經過季節調整後, 則升了0.09%. 這可視為好消息. 三月房價比2006年高峰時降了約35%. 今年第一季平均售價比上一季降了2%,比去年同期降了1.9%.
壞消息並非來自美國國內. 而是來自歐洲. 歐元區危機好像是無止境的戲碼. 無人能預估希臘脫離歐元會帶來的損害. 可預測的是一定會減緩經濟復甦的步調. 甚至有一些區域會再進入衰退.
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