At this moment, there is about $14 trillion government bond in negative interest rate in the world. In theory, if you can sell short on those bond, you are entitled to collect interest. For me, this is a perfect investment dream.
First, you issue paper to change cash, if you can sell nake, you don't even need any capital.
Second, whoever hold your paper need pay you interest . If they don't, you can simply take out from their principal.
Third, put those cash in strong financial institutions. You still can collect interest, even they pay very little now. End of the story, the term doesn't mater, sell as much as you can as soon as the interest rates are negative.
So, is this a perfect investment dream? Even this is, it's still a dream.
Warren Buffett said, interest rate is like gravity. When interest rate is zero, gravity is zero. When people expect zero interest rate for a long time, assets price could be infinite. I would like to add, negative interest rate like a rocket, will accelerate to move higher. The question is, when positive Inerest rate comes back, gravity will be back as well. Those high price assets in those negative interest rate area, are they going to collapse on the ground?
目前全世界有14兆美元的政府債券殖利率是負的。理論上來說,如果你賣空這些債券,你收得利息。對我來說,這是一個投資美夢。
第一,你是用紙換錢。要是能無抵押賣空,連本都免了。
第二,無論誰持有你的合約,就得付你利息。誰膽敢不付,扣其本金便是。
第三,將這些錢放在質優金融機構,仍可收到利息,雖然他們付的利率很低。
結論是,無論這些負利率的政府債券是何時到期,能賣多少算多少。所以,這是一個投資美夢嗎?就算是,它仍是一個夢。
巴菲特説過,利率就像萬有引力一樣。當利率為零時,引力也為零。如果人們認為利率長期為零時,資產價格可能無限上漲。我加上一句,負利率就像火箭一樣,會加速價格上升。問題是當正利率回來時,這些負利率地區的資產價格會不會重摔在地上?
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